TransUnion overlays Consumer Credit Index data to Budget 2026

What consumers should know as they head into their personal budgeting for 2026 to stay ahead of the credit crunch.

As South Africa’s 2026 Budget signals fiscal stability, modest tax relief and a strengthened macroeconomic framework, TransUnion today released its Consumer Credit Index (CCI) for H2 2025, showing that household credit health remains in recovery, with policy developments likely to reinforce this trend.

The Budget’s inflation-linked tax bracket adjustments, cancellation of the proposed R20 billion tax increase, expanded tax-free savings allowance, SME support measures and commitment to debt stabilisation all point to a more supportive operating environment for households and lenders in 2026.

Against this backdrop, the TransUnion CCI, measured on a 0 to 100-point scale where 50 index points represent a break-even level remained above neutral throughout H2 2025. The index peaked at 56 index points in Q3 before moderating to 52 index points in Q4, signalling that while improvement continues, momentum has normalised.

Lee Naik, CEO of TransUnion Africa, says: “The Consumer Credit Index shows that South African households have moved beyond peak financial strain and are rebuilding stability, even as growth remains measured. What is encouraging is the alignment between improving credit behaviour and a Budget that reinforces fiscal discipline and income support. When macroeconomic policy and consumer fundamentals move in the same direction, it creates the conditions for more sustainable credit growth in the year ahead.”

How the CCI aligns with Budget 2026 outcomes:

Sustained, measured improvement in credit health
With the CCI remaining above 50 index points, repayment behaviour and household financial conditions continue to improve. Budget 2026’s modest tax relief and inflation discipline may help make this recovery more durable.

SME support strengthens income stability
The increase in the VAT registration threshold to R2.3 million, simplified turnover tax and continued structural reforms in energy and logistics support small and medium-sized enterprises, a critical driver of employment and income stability, which underpins consumer credit performance.

A more predictable macro environment for borrowers and lenders
Debt stabilisation, anchored inflation expectations and no new broad-based tax hikes create a more stable environment for managing credit commitments, even as interest rates remain relatively elevated during the inflation-target transition.

Supporting household cash flow 
While household cash flow growth moderated toward year-end, Budget adjustments to tax brackets and medical credits help protect take-home pay. The increase in the tax-free savings limit to R46,000 further supports long-term financial buffers.

Managing repayment stability
Three-month defaults edged higher in Q4 an indicator to monitor, but the Budget’s emphasis on inflation anchored at a 3% midpoint and no new broad-based tax hikes creates a more predictable environment for managing instalments on credit cards, personal loans and vehicle finance.

Promoting a stronger national savings culture

Budget 2026 promotes a stronger savings culture through a higher TFSA limit and RA reforms, encouraging households to build financial buffers. These measures support the CCI trend of improving credit health by strengthening long-term resilience, reducing financial shocks and reinforcing repayment stability across the economy.